6626 Trafalgar Road is a 23.3 acre parcel of land located in a prime area for development, on the east side of Milton just south of Derry Road and Trafalgar.
The video below will introduce you to the five sections of the property, and at the end we will discuss why it’s such a great opportunity. We’ve also provided written details and links where appropriate.
Have a look at our walkthrough of the property to get a better sense of the land and why it’s so valuable.
The property consists of five “sections”, each with a very unique profile.
The greenhouses and farming buildings have mostly been removed, as you’ll see below.
Here’s a view of the full property from a drone above the east side of Trafalgar, looking west, with the approximate land boundaries highlighted:
Here are the individual sections, as seen with a drone. The coloured renderings may vary from the actual measured distances, and are provided for illustration purposes only.
1. A front section of 5.5 acres, which is the most valuable part of the land, directly abutting Trafalgar Road. The frontage along Trafalgar is approximately 450 feet, and includes a detached dwelling of approximately 1,800 square feet in below average condition but habitable, plus two outbuildings which are used for storage. The home is currently occupied by a relative of the owners.
2. The north section, approximately 8 acres, which is a a Union Gas easement. This will likely not be developed land, but may have use as parkland in a future development.
3. A man-made pond in the middle of the land at 3.7 acres. This area is “Natural Heritage”, and will likely not be approved to be filled in or changed.
4. A forested 3 acre parcel in the back of the property. There are no foreseeable plans for development of this section either.
5. A 3 acre section between the pond and forest that is flat and developable, but is currently land-locked. As future building takes place surrounding this property, the value of this land will increase dramatically. This area is classified as “urban” by the Region of Halton and does not appear to have any restrictions to build, provided it is “unlocked” by adjacent land owners willing to develop.
Here are some of the reasons why this area will be so valuable now, and why it will be in the future:
1. Trafalgar Road is already serviced, with water & sewer at the lot line
The large parcels of land across the street on the east side of Trafalgar have also received their allocation from the Town, and it’s likely that allocation for 6626 Trafalgar Road would happen in the next round (approximately five years from now).
The red dot indicates the location of the subject property in relation to the 2020 allocations.
2. The land is designated as a future urban area
You can also see the proposed Major Transit Station (GO) halfway between Derry and the 401 in Map 1h of this document from the Region of Halton, or in the screen shot below.
The red dot shows where the subject property is located.
Using the Halton Region online mapping tool with a much closer perspective, it shows the section of land between the pond and the forest (2) as “urban area”, just like the front section (1):
From a Provincial level, Ontario has set quotas for density levels in the Places to Grow Act, with this prime development area likely to require 150+ people and/or jobs per hectare.
With an average of 2.2 people per dwelling, and just over 2.2 hectares (5.5 acres) ready for development, this would mean a minimum of 150 dwellings in the front section of the land. Milton’s median sale price currently sits at $1,050,000 as of June 2022. Freehold townhouses have a median price of $950,000, and condo townhouses and apartments are $735,000 and $640,000 respectively.
At a conservative $750,000 per dwelling using today’s values, the total revenue from the front section land would likely be a minimum of $112,500,000. This is a conservative estimate, depending on future property values and density limits, which are both expected to increase over time.
From a yield perspective, the value of the land would be no more than 15% of the total value of the build.
If you add the currently landlocked area between the pond and the forest to the development calculations, you will have an additional 1.21 hectares to accomodate a minimum of 182 people and 82 dwellings, with a minimum extra revenue in the future of $61,500,000.
3. Trafalgar Road is expected to resemble a major artery like Hurontario Street in Mississauga
To the south, you have a major development node at Trafalgar and Dundas in Oakville, and to the north you will have a future Go Station, the Toronto Outlet Mall, and excellent 401, 407 and 413 access.
The earliest estimate for the Go Station would be the next few years, with funds coming from a mix of private and public sectors.
Comparable Sales & Valuation:
The different parts of the land are valued differently.
Here is our analysis.
Total lower estimate: $14,645,000
Total upper estimate: $19,040,000
Most of the comparable sales for this property are sold off-MLS.
Here are the sales we reviewed, and the reasons why we believe they are relevant.
Within the urban area:
Also known as the RONA store. Sold in March 2022 for $7.2 million per acre. Four and a half years prior, the land was sold for $2.6 million per acre, which is over 25% appreciation per year.
This is in the industrial area northwest of James Snow Parkway & Steeles, and sold in January 2022 for $6.2 million per acre.
We believe these two are superior locations closer to the urban core, but they do show the potential for future value growth.
Within the future Derry Green Business Park land area, this land was purchased for $2.94 million per acre in June 2022.
Within the rural area:
This 6.71 acre property is directly beside the DSV building and sold in June 2022 for industrial development at $2.6 million per acre. The property report is unavailable due to land assembly by the buyer.
We believe this property, just east of James Snow Parkway, is on a similar development timeline as the subject property, on a desirable high-traffic street. In August 2021, this property sold for $2.4 million per acre, and would certainly sell for more one year later.
This property is a little further south, just east of Trafalgar on the south side of Britannia. It has a more distant development timeline (10-20 years) compared to the subject property, and this 3.11 acre parcel sold for $1.7 million per acre.
Even further southeast, this property has a total of 95 acres, of which 37 acres towards the front are developable, likely on a 20-30 year timeline. The back of the property has forests and protected land. Recently sold for $26 million, this property provided our closest estimate of value for the area between the pond and forest at 6626 Trafalgar Road at $600,000 per acre, since they are likely on the same distant development timeline.
What to do next:
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About the Neighbourhood
We tend to think of the rural areas in two categories: northwest and southeast. The rural homes north and west of Milton may or may not be in the Niagara Escarpment protected area, and they can range from estate subdivisions in Campbellville and Brookville to acreage and “country” style living. From half-acre lots to more than 200 acres, you’ll find some of the greatest treasures in Milton when you visit this area, including the homes of sports icons and celebrities. South and east are filled with redevelopment potential as Milton’s next phases of building continue towards Oakville and Mississauga in the next 20 years. Quite a few of these lands have already been purchased by larger developers.Explore Rural Milton See Listings in the Area